SEC Bowls From Top To Bottom

For the past two days, I've been sick for the first time in ten years. I can thank my son for sending a stomach virus racing through the Travis household. Now I'm back, just in time for Christmas with an SEC bowl guide. Enjoy it here.

In the past three seasons, as the SEC has won three consecutive national titles, the conference has also proven dominant in bowl games -- SEC teams are a college best 19-7. The next most wins among big six conference opponents is 12, a number shared by the Pac-10, Big 12, and the Big East. The used-to-be big Ten (now not worthy of having the B capitalized) is 6-16. Putting that into context, that's four less wins than the ACC, which is 10-16 in bowl games the past three seasons.

What's more remarkable about that SEC record? In all three seasons the SEC teams have been playing up in terms of where they are slotted for bowl games because the BCS has selected two members of the conference each year. That means that the erstwhile second best team in the league has always been the third best, and on down the line. The Big Ten has dealt with the issue each of the last three years to disastrous consequences. As if that weren't enough, other big conferences slot their top non-BCS teams against SEC teams in lower-tier bowl games. I'm looking at you Chik-fil-A Bowl when you draw the SEC's fifth or sixth best representative to take on the ACC's top at-large pick.

After dominating for the past three seasons, college football fans should take a breath, this year 10 SEC teams are playing in bowl games.

So if you want to be safe in your bowl pick 'em leagues, you should have selected at least seven teams from the SEC to win.

It's probably too late for that, but in the event you don't pick until after Christmas, which some bowl pick-ems do, I'm picking them against the spread as the conclusion to my season-long contest with my family's former French exchange student, Audrey.

You'll recall that we've waged an epic struggle all season long. Currently here are our standings:

Clay: 30-27-3

Audrey: 26-30-4

Audrey has never been to a college football game and I'm currently dominating her by four games in the correct picks column. Plainly, I own France.

Call me de Gaulle.

I've decided to end our competition once and for all with a grand finale, picking all 10 SEC bowl games. So here we go.

But as if picking all 10 against the spread wasn't enough, I've also ranked the 10 games according to confidence points since all the bowl pick' ems require you to do this. (By the way, is this the most complicated challenge that most people compete in every year? How hard is it to keep track of the numbers 1-34 and assign values for bowl games? What's more, isn't picking against the spread for 34 games regardless of what value you place on the game, likely to be difficult enough that there aren't many ties? I mean, no pool that I've ever participated in requires confidence value for the NCAA tournament. Anyway, that's a pet peeve of mine because my wife always shows up a with a paper copy and asks me to fill in the confidence values for her after she's made the pick. And inevitably I get the numbers crossed up somehow.)

In other words, the first game here -- Florida and Cincinnati in the Sugar Bowl -- is the easiest game on the board for any SEC team. So wager your mortgage on that one.

1. Florida -11 vs. Cincinnati, Sugar Bowl

The Gators are going to beat Cincinnati so badly that in the post-game news conference Mardy Gilyard is going to say, "Now I understand why Coach Kelly left. If we played in the SEC, we'd have gone 4-4."

Because with that defense, they would have been 4-4 ... at best. Cincy's given up 45, 36, and 44 in three of the past four weeks to vastly inferior offensive talent than they'll see against the Gators. That means the Gators are going to score more than 40 against them.

And if there is one thing we've learned in the past three seasons it's this: SEC defenses, when given a month to prepare for an opponent, can shut down otherwise high-flying offenses. (See, 12, Big; See also, Ten, Big)

Cincinnati, you've been forewarned. Tim Tebow is going to make you worship him.

Okay, maybe not, that violates the Bible.

He's going to proselytize you.

Which sounds so much dirtier than it actually is.

Clay: Florida

Audrey: Cincinnati

2. Alabama -4 vs. Texas, BCS Title Game

There has been no surer bet in the BCS era than two things: A.) The SEC will win in the BCS title game if they're allowed to play and B.) The SEC will win by at least a touchdown.

Yep, not only is the SEC 5-0 in title games, but they've won all of these games by at least a touchdown. That's a stat that deserves more attention than it receives.

As if that weren't enough, let me toss out two names for you: Nick Saban and Mack Brown.

Who you rolling with if your life depends on one man developing a gameplan for a single game with a month to prepare?

Bama will make it 6-0 and will win by at least a touchdown.

Late Thursday night Lauren Conrad is going to turn to Lo Bosworth and say, "What is with all these bangs in Hollywood tonight?"

And Lo is going to say, "Didn't you read Dixieland Delight? It's totes Bama Bangs."

Clay: Alabama

Audrey: Alabama

3. Arkansas -8 vs. East Carolina Liberty Bowl

I'm going to be honest with you, I don't know much about East Carolina. Just that they will be playing in a virtual home stadium for Arkansas since Memphis is the default state capital of Arkansas and Mississippi.

Also, that Bobby Petrino has no compassion and would score 50 points -- while faking punts -- against a charity team fielded by cancer ward patients.

East Carolina is healthier.

Which, in general, is a good thing.

Not against Petrino.

FYI, Arkansas has covered the spread in seven of its last nine games -- and one of those games that they didn't cover was against Eastern Michigan and they scored 63.

East Carolina has neither the offensive firepower nor the stout defense to keep this game close.

Arkansas rolls.

After the win, Ryan Mallett is going to text Erin Andrews, "I told you'd we win." And Erin Andrews is going to text back, "Who is this?"

Clay: Arkansas

Audrey: East Carolina

4. LSU vs. Penn State -2.5 Capital One Bowl

I have zero doubt that right now LSU has three times as many future NFL players on its roster as Penn State does. So initially I had this game ranked as my 10th most comfortable game and was convinced Les Miles would lose by two and think he won by three.

But want a stat that will blow your mind? Les Miles is 4-0 in bowl games at LSU having outscored his opponents by a total of, wait for it, 157-44 in the process. And his victims have been name programs. He's beaten Miami, Notre Dame, Ohio State, and Georgia Tech those four seasons.

All of them by at least two touchdowns.

Yep, that's how screwed up the bowl system is, Les Miles turns into Bear Bryant as soon as the bowl season comes around.

But is this really that surprising when you think about it?

Wouldn't it stand to reason that if you have a month to prepare, the more talented team is likely to win? And that even if you're an idiot, which Miles clearly is, with bowls you get the time you need to put together a gameplan that leads to success.

So you're telling me that I get LSU, the better team, and the points?

Let's all climb aboard the Les Miles express, destination Orlando. Or as Les Miles calls it, "The place where Mickey lives with Pluto."

Clay: LSU

Audrey: Penn State

5. Ole Miss -3 vs. Oklahoma State, Cotton Bowl

Dexter McCluster will have an entire month off to rest up for Oklahoma State. Why is this important? Because when McCluster is rested, the Rebels are a different team.

Oklahoma State, thanks to their losses on offense to injuries and the NCAA, lacks explosiveness on offense. Unfortunately for them, the Rebels don't. And, oh by the way, Ole Miss is going to dominate the line with their defensive tackles.

The Rebels win big in this game. At least assuming that someone has stuffed Hotty Toddy man in the trunk of the car and hasn't allowed him to make the trip to the Cotton Bowl.

Clay: Ole Miss

Audrey: Ole Miss

6. Kentucky vs. Clemson -7, Music City Bowl

At Kentucky, they put up murals when they win Music City Bowls. At Clemson, they cry quietly in their grits over the fact that they're playing in the Music City Bowl.

Advantage: Kentucky

Given that the SEC has the best bowl record in America over the past three seasons, you rarely get to take an SEC team and pocket a full touchdown as a cushion against your loss. So I think you have to take Kentucky here. Especially with Clemson coming off two straight losses and Kentucky having turned the Music City bowl into a virtual home game.

Put this another way, would Kentucky be a touchdown underdog if this game was being played in Lexington?

No, right?

Well, effectively this game is being played in Lexington.

So all the value is with Kentucky.

That's even if you didn't know that Rich Brooks, SEC coach of the year, has won his last three bowl games.

Clay: Kentucky

Audrey: Clemson

Read the full column here.

Labels: sec bowl primer claynation picking sec games against spread

Posted by Clay Travis at 9:40 AM 0 comments
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