ManifeSECt Destiny: Signing Day Domination
Thursday, February 4, 2010
Read the full column here.
National signing day is close to a regional holiday in the South. Nowhere else in the country is recruiting followed so obsessively. Maybe that's the reason the SEC continues to crush other conferences when it comes to signing the top football classes in the country, fans simply demand it. As Wednesday wound down, the top of the recruiting boards looked awfully similar to the top of the recruiting boards for the past six years: the SEC dominated.
How much so? Tennessee's class finished ninth in the country.
That sounds pretty good, right?
Unfortunately for the Vols, that only put them at fifth in the SEC.
Fifth!
That's because Florida clocked in at No. 1, with a class that some are already calling the greatest in college football history. Auburn pulled in a No. 4 class, Alabama fifth and LSU took seventh. Rounding out the list, per Rivals, Georgia and Ole Miss were 16 and 17, giving the SEC seven of the top 17 classes in America. South Carolina clocked in at 25, Arkansas and Kentucky were 48 and 49, and Vanderbilt was 60.
If Rivals isn't your speed, ESPN had similar class rankings, with five of the top nine classes in the country in the SEC and seven of the top 18.
What does all this mean for the balance of power in the country?
Since 2003, when the SEC began a run that would see five of the eight championships reside in the conference, here is how the conference has ranked in Rivals' recruiting databases:
In 2003, five of the top 11 classes in America were from the SEC.
2004? Five of the top 15.
2005? Four of the top 15
2006? Six of the top 16.
2007? Seven of the top 10.
2008? Four of the top 11.
2009? Six of the top 12.
2010? Five of the top nine.
2011? More to come.
Is the on-field dominance a coincidence?
I think not.
In fact, it's just evidence that the era of ManifeSECt Destiny remains upon us.
Perception is now fueling reality. The best players in the country want to play in the SEC because the best players in the country play in the SEC.
Good luck beating that.
But what do the SEC classes in 2010 tell us about the path of SEC football as we enter a new generation?
First, the usual disclaimers. Recruiting, like drafting, is an inexact science. You need a large sample size for to recruits to translate into on-field results. Even then, in terms of individual classes and individual schools in the SEC, recruiting well does not guarantee BCS bowls are coming. But recruiting poorly does guarantee that you won't win an SEC title. In other words, every school's class won't pan out, but all of them won't collapse either. Chances are, as has happened in the past few years, one or more of the top 10 classes in the SEC will be a national champion three years from now ... if not sooner.
1. Florida's class is dominant and the Gators are now going national for top talent.
Urban Meyer claimed he was overstressed. Then he went out and put together the greatest collection of defensive recruits in SEC history. I don't know about Meyer, but that would lower my stress level an awful lot.
How dominant are the Gators becoming in recruiting? They got three five-star defensive players from areas that are hardly SEC hotbeds: Philadelphia's Sharrif Floyd, Staten Island's Dominque Easley, and Moreno Valley, Calif.'s, Ronald Powell.
What's this teach us? The SEC's national footprint is growing. Gone are the days when Steve Spurrier told a top California recruit, Donte Stallworth, "We don't recruit California."
Now the Gators nabbed three of their four five-star players from thousands of miles away. This doesn't mean Florida abandoned their usual turf of Georgia and Florida -- they signed 19 players from those two states -- but it does mean that, if you're a top program, the SEC brand is opening doors that were previously closed.
The entire country is a fertile recruiting market.
Gene Chizik
2. If you're at the right school, you can become a recruiting juggernaut because the school sells itself. See Chizik, Gene.
Corey Lemonier, a top defensive end recruit from Hialeah, Fla., committed to the "University of Auburn." Of course it's Auburn University, but that was about the only downside to this year's haul for the Tigers.
In fact, Gene Chizik was so pumped, in a moment of premature celebration, he traveled down to the Senior Bowl and clapped Terrence Cody's breasts together while making a squealing seal-like sound. As if that weren't enough, he also found three Nestle Crunch bars hidden in Cody's breast folds.
On a more serious note, Chizik had three classes at Iowa State.
All were awful.
Were those classes awful because Chizik was a bad recruiter or because the job makes a head coach as a recruiter?
I think it's the latter.
3. Nick Saban will never fail when it comes to recruiting, but other schools can slowly catch up.
After running roughshod over the SEC for the past two seasons, Saban and crew slipped back to earth this season. I know, I know, the Crimson Tide still finished with a top-five class, but they also took more risks than they have in the past two seasons.
'Bama fans will say that their team was so stocked after two top classes that many recruits were scared off. They'll be wrong.
In 2009, Alabama had four five-stars and 14 four stars.
In 2008, Alabama had three five-stars and 19 four stars.
These two classes, the top two in the country both years per Rivals, were the foundation for Alabama's national title.
This year?
The Crimson Tide had just one-five star and 15 four stars.
It might not sound like much, but three or four stud players end up making a class, and 'Bama lost several kids they thought they had a chance for on signing day.
4. Les Miles continues to illustrate that a blind monkey with dropsy could recruit well to LSU.
Here's a fun fact, the entire Big Ten conference managed the same number of five star players, one, as LSU. That means that Florida by itself had three more five star players than the entire Big Ten.
Uh oh.
Another fun fact, at Oklahoma State the last two classes Les Miles recruited finished 37 and 42. Here is what LSU's classes have ranked under Les Miles: 7, 4, 11, 2 and 6.
I ask you, how much of it is Les Miles and how much is being able to recruit players to LSU.
It's mostly LSU.
By the way, is anyone else certain that Les Miles still calls a fax the facsimile machine?
5. Derek Dooley saved the Vols' recruiting class and added a couple of flourishes on his own. But he also demonstrated that programs still recruit themselves as much as coaches do.
Fun fact before we get rolling here, Derek Dooley's nickname, given to him by his mother, Barbara, is Precious.
I'm not making that up. She told us on the radio. You can hear it yourself here.
Tennessee's finish in the top-ten is the recruiting triple crown that proves top SEC programs recruit themselves.
If you've ever doubted whether there is a clear divide between the big six programs in the SEC and everyone else, looking at the success of Gene Chizik, Les Miles and Derek Dooley this season offers some evidence of the pecking order in the conference.
These three men had never signed a top twenty-five class as head coaches, and all three managed top 10 classes this fall at Auburn, LSU and Tennessee.
Dooley's Louisiana Tech program finished 93rd in the nation. Is that because Dooley is a bad recruiter or because recruiting is a lot like sales everywhere? The better the product you have to sell, more people are interested in buying it.
That's one of the things that most astounded me about the Lane Kiffin era. Vols fans acted like Tennessee had never been a good recruiting program before. Lane Kiffin is a great recruiter, but four years ago the Vols had the number two class in the country. Send Kiffin out to Wyoming and let him put together a top-10 class. As is, all Kiffin has done is take over top recruiting programs and continue to be successful.
6. Mark Richt is going to have to take Georgia recruiting national ... or else.
The Bulldogs were the biggest signing day loser in the SEC, falling out of the top 10 and losing their top players to raids from out-of-state. Losing players to other programs happens in every state, particularly when, like Georgia, the state is stocked with so many top recruits. But generally those programs snag top players from other states as well.
Not the Bulldogs.
Georgia only signed 19 prospects. 14 players were from Georgia, four from Florida, and one player from South Carolina.
I'm not saying Georgia needs to get tons of national prospects, but it does need to supplement its recruiting base with national players at positions of need. The Bulldogs can't be lazy.
They've brought in top rated national players before with Matthew Stafford from Texas and Knowshon Moreno from New Jersey.
This time they rested on their local laurels.
And got burned.
This class, which breaks a multi-year string of top 10 finishes for Mark Richt, will do little to stave off the impression that Georgia's program is declining.
7. Ole Miss followed the rules this year ... and proved that national television can have a quick impact on a program.
Last year, the Rebels signed 37 prospects, necessitating a change in rules in the SEC, limiting signing classes to 28 players.
This year the Rebels only signed 25 players.
And, in an interesting test case for how success in the new era of national television can help a program, Ole Miss only signed 10 players from in-state.
What was the second biggest recruited state for Ole Miss?
Florida, with eight commits.
The Rebels took players from eight different states. This suggests that it only takes a couple of years of success to put your team on the radar.
8. South Carolina's best player, five star Marcus Lattimore, announced in a church.
Which makes sense, because every Gamecock fan spends the month of November praying for their season not to collapse.
Spurrier's classes at South Carolina have been better than his on-field results. He's had a top-10 class and four other classes in the top 25. But for whatever reason no positive results have developed.
Unless you count a Liberty Bowl win as a truly positive result.
The time for grumbling about a talent gap is over. Either the Gamecocks make the step up this year and make a run for the SEC East title or they never will under the Ole Ball Coach.
Consider this a vote for ... never will.
9. Successful SEC programs recruit themselves ... flip side, ask Dan Mullen.
For the past several years Dan Mullen has thought he was a great recruiter, that players loved him, that every joke he told was worthy of Chris Rock's stand-up routine, that his recruiting touch was pure gold.
This year?
This year he probably felt like he was lobbying for same-sex couples.
In Mississippi.
State finished with 20 of their 26 players from inside the Magnolia state environs. No recruits were from states that didn't border Mississippi.
Some programs don't go outside their state because they don't need to, others don't have the option to bring in national players.
The Bulldogs are the latter.
Read the rest here. Labels: manifesect destiny sec recruiting classes
Posted by Clay Travis at 4:36 PM
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