Does Auburn Deserve an NCAA Bid Over Kentucky and Florida?
Wednesday, March 4, 2009
I know, I know, this is kind of shocking but after their road win last night at Alabama, Auburn is 19-10 overall and now 9-6 in conference. That's a better conference record than either Florida or Kentucky. With last night's win they also clinched a bye into the second round of the SEC Tournament. As if that weren't enough, here's the kicker, they get LSU at home in the final game of the regular season. Win that game over a top 25 RPI team and all of a sudden they're 10-6 with a major win and have won 7 out of 8 in the conference to close the season. Vol fans will remember that Auburn turned their season around on the last-second lay-up. Since that win on February 7, they've lost just once--a 7 point defeat at LSU. Win against LSU on Saturday and Auburn will have gone an entire month and lost just once.
Now, there is still conference basketball to be played, but if we get a situation where Florida is 9-7, Kentucky is 9-7, and Auburn is 10-6, can you really argue that either Kentucky or Florida deserves a bid before Auburn? (Auburn lost to both teams in January, but my argument is predicated on the strength of Auburn's finish and the totality of the conference record.) Florida's record in the final month of the regular season would be 3-5, and Kentucky would have finished the season on a 4-7 run. Meanwhile Auburn would have finished at 7-1.
Right now Auburn's RPI is in the 60's, the same as Kentucky and beneath Florida. But that final win over LSU would do wonders for them, likely vaulting the Tigers into the 40's and putting them at 10 conference wins. The only SEC school I can remember with ten wins getting snubbed in the past 15 years is Vanderbilt. Am I misremembering this? Can anyone else remember a 10 win SEC team not getting in. (By the way reader Tom V. pointed out that SEC POY Dan Langhi didn't lead his team to the NCAA Tourney in 2000 either. So that makes he and Slay in the past 20 years who have won the award without their teams making the NCAA's.) Auburn's strength of schedule would be relatively equal to Kentucky and Florida as well. Granted Florida has the out of conference win over Washington and Kentucky beat West Virginia, but Auburn did go on the road and beat Virginia. Put it this way, if Kentucky or Florida get to 10-6 in conference, both teams will be convinced they're in no matter what they do in the SEC tourney. Why shouldn't the same hold true for Auburn?
As if that weren't enough Auburn will draw the 3 seed in the East in the second round of the SEC Tournament (best guess: either Kentucky or Florida). Win that game and there would be absolutely no doubt that they deserve a bid. That means Auburn can absolutely guarantee a bid for their team by beating LSU on Saturday and the East 3 in the quarterfinals of the SEC Tournament. Yep, Jeff Lebo and Auburn are that close to dancing come the NCAA Tourney.
How amazing is that turnaround since trailing Tennessee by four with less than a minute to play? Perhaps the best SEC evidence of how one single play can change the course of a season.
Just when Kentucky and Florida fans have been focusing on their game in Gainesville as the ultimate play-in game for the NCAA Tournament, think again, Auburn's looming. Labels: does auburn deserve an ncaa bid kentucky florida
Posted by Clay Travis at 9:57 AM
 
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Here is a breakdown of the SEC Record v NCAA postseason play since the SEC was expanded (this obviously wasn't updated last year).
http://secsports.com/index.php?s=&change_well_id=2&url_article_id=10543
I think you made up the part about Vandy getting left out with 10 conference wins. Tennessee was the last 9-7 team in the SEC to get screwed out of a NCAA berth in 2003. Thanks a lot Buzz Peterson. I still blame him for John Higgins' post-season suspension that year. Go Vols!
Yeah, a couple of people have emailed about Vandy. That's wrong, they didn't ever get spurned with 10 wins. So the point is even more valid, either Auburn becomes the first team in recent SEC history to not make the tourney with 10 wins, or they make the tourney.
I just think everyone is overlooking them.
I belieeve Bama failed to get in in 2001 with 10 SEC wins (but I'm not checking right now). They had a ridiculous OOC schedule and the NCAA was in its OOC-focused phase.
Same anonymous as above. Now that I see that the Judge posted an informative link, I was incorrect (2001 Bama had only 8 conf wins). Based on that, I don't know why I thought that they got the shaft that year.
I completely agree with what you're saying. Granted, I'm an Auburn fan, but...Anyway, I saw where Joe Lunardi said we won't get in, especially because we play in the West. I was like WTF; if you want to say we won't get in because the SEC in general is down this year, I can accept that, but the West has the conference champ, and as or right now, it's 17-17 against East Division teams, so why he thinks the East is so much better is beyond me.
I understand with 4 national titles in the last 12-13 years, the East has a bit more prestige than the West, but nothing to separate them this year. I mean, Arkansas, the worst team in the division, beat Oklahoma and Texas at home while the only West team to go into Fayettenam and not win was Bama. I could go on. Of course, all of this will be moot when LSU beats us on Saturday unless we win it all down in Tampa.
Just a quick correction to your blog on Auburns record. If Auburn beats LSU on Saturday that makes them winners of 8 of the last 9 games in conference. As it stands now they have won 7 of 8 before playing LSU. Thats pretty damn impressive if you ask me.